Can superintelligence be born?
[Science Questions Solved with Cartoons] The Future of Artificial Intelligence
Sci-fi movies sometimes show that in the future, artificial intelligence
that far surpasses human intelligence will become self-conscious and destroy
humanity. So, people have a vague fear of artificial intelligence. Could
artificial intelligence really be born in the future that could destroy
mankind?
Artificial intelligence network system and deep learning
Artificial intelligence is a computer program that realizes what human
intelligence can do. When artificial intelligence was first developed, it was a
program in which artificial intelligence stores intelligence-related rules and
information in a computer, and the computer makes decisions by itself by
comparing it with information received from outside. So, there were many
programs that put a large amount of knowledge in a specific field and made the
computer to make judgments or reasoning like an expert.
However, this artificial intelligence was far from real human intelligence
because it could not do things that humans could do very easily. For example,
no matter how much information it had about a cat, it couldn't tell the
difference between a cat and a dog by looking at a picture, and couldn't do
trivial things like distinguishing colors.
However, starting in the late 1980s, scientists started making
artificial intelligence programs using artificial neural network models that
mimic the learning process of the human brain. The most popular machine
learning method using artificial neural networks these days is deep learning.
In general machine learning, the computer learns in advance and classifies data
based on it, but deep learning does not learn in advance, but discovers
patterns in numerous data input to the computer, learns by itself, and
classifies data just as humans classify objects.
Therefore, the larger the amount of data, the more effective deep
learning is possible. For example, in the existing machine learning, supervised
learning was required to teach a cat by inputting a large amount of pictures of
cats in order for a computer to distinguish between cats. However, in deep
learning, without such a supervised learning process, a computer can learn to
identify cats by analyzing numerous cat pictures. The reason AI is capable of
such deep learning is that computers, the Internet, and mobile devices have
become necessities of life, and the enormous amount of text and image data
poured through them can be used by computers.
Thanks to deep learning, the current artificial intelligence has
developed to the level of finding the same person in another photo or video by
analyzing the facial features of a person in a photo, and it has become able to
understand conversations that are not grammatical by learning the conversations
of many people.
Can strong artificial intelligence and superintelligence be born?
As artificial intelligence learns by itself through deep learning,
people are very interested in how far artificial intelligence will develop.
People think that if artificial intelligence is highly developed, it can
develop to a level where not only human intellect and reason, but also emotions
and self-consciousness knowing that it is an artificial intelligence can be
developed. Such artificial intelligence is called strong artificial
intelligence, and furthermore, artificial intelligence that far surpasses human
intelligence is called 'superintelligence'. It is this strong artificial
intelligence and superintelligence that is destroying mankind in science
fiction movies. Could such a strong artificial intelligence really be born in
the future?
Many experts argue that the birth of strong artificial intelligence is
impossible in the near future. In order to create strong artificial
intelligence, it is necessary to know the entire function of the human brain,
but the research is still in its infancy. The human brain has 100 billion brain
cells called neurons, and there are about 100 trillion synaptic connections
between those neurons.
Since synaptic connections are so complex and the process of
transmitting information involves more than 100 types of neurotransmitters as
well as electrical signals, no one knows how long it will take to fully
understand the functions of the human brain. Google's artificial intelligence
required a supercomputer with 16,000 central processing units to distinguish a
cat's face, but it may not be possible no matter how many central processing
units are connected to imitate human intelligence. Moreover, experts predict
that the performance of computers will soon reach its limits.
However, the birth of strong artificial intelligence is not at all
impossible. Scientists are looking forward to a quantum computer that uses the
characteristics of quantum mechanics in which 0 and 1 exist at the same time,
unlike the existing digital computer that processes only 0 and 1 signals. This
is because quantum computers can perform calculations millions of times faster
than conventional supercomputers. There are still many hurdles to overcome to
create a perfect quantum computer, but using a quantum computer may enable the
birth of strong artificial intelligence.
On the other hand, if you watch the movie Terminator, a complex
connected Internet network suddenly becomes self-conscious, and Skynet, a
strong artificial intelligence, is born. Can artificial intelligence suddenly
increase its intelligence like this? When many computers are connected to each
other, the phenomenon in which a computer's intelligence suddenly increases
without input of new information is called 'emergency of intelligence'. In
fact, some argue that the emergence of intelligence is possible in computer
science. However, most experts say that these claims are greatly exaggerated.
It's like the odds of making a 747 airliner by accident while repairing a
wagon.
If strong artificial intelligence is born, can artificial intelligence
rule humans as in science fiction movies? Experts' opinions are divided. There
are opinions that warn of the dangers of strong artificial intelligence, while
others believe that humans can control sufficiently strong artificial
intelligence. Also, there is an opinion that there is no reason to attack
humans no matter how self-conscious the AI is. It is argued that artificial
intelligence cannot generate desire or greed because there is no body that
constantly feels deficient. Rather, the human desire to exploit the power of
artificial intelligence that has become more powerful for the worse could be a
bigger problem.
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