Benefits and risks of artificial intelligence
WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)?
Today's artificial intelligence is called “narrow AI” because it is
designed to perform specific tasks, such as facial recognition, internet
searches, or driving a car.
WHY STUDY THE SAFETY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI
In the short term, the goal of maintaining the societal impact of artificial
intelligence AI, from technical topics such as validation, validity, security
and control, to topics such as economics and law, fuels research in many
fields. If a personal laptop goes down or gets hacked, it can be a minor
inconvenience, but when AI systems control our cars, airplanes, pacemakers,
automated transaction systems and power supplies, the ability of AI artificial
intelligence to work becomes even more important. Another short-term challenge
is to prevent the fierce weaponization race of lethal automated weapons.
A more important question in the long run is what will happen if the
development of comprehensive AI succeeds, making AI systems superior to humans
in all cognitive tasks. As Dr. Irving John Good pointed out in 1965, designing
smarter artificial intelligence AI is in itself a
cognitive task, so such systems can outsmart human intelligence at an explosive
rate through endless self-improvement. The birth of inclusive artificial
intelligence AI could be the biggest event in human history, as AI's
superintelligence could help solve the problems of war, disease and poverty by
inventing innovative new technologies. However, some experts are concerned.
Unless we align AI's goals with ours before it significantly surpasses human
intelligence, the birth of inclusive AI may be the end of humanity.
While some question the success of inclusive artificial intelligence AI,
others argue that AI's superintelligence will certainly benefit humans. While
this possibility exists, FLI is also looking at the potential for artificial
intelligence systems to intentionally or unintentionally cause significant
harm. We believe that by enabling today's research to prevent potential
catastrophes in the future, humanity will be able to fully reap the benefits of
artificial intelligence.
THE DANGERS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI
Most researchers agree that there is no reason for AI to be
intentionally good or evil, as hyperintelligent AI artificial intelligence will not display human
emotions such as love or hate. However, given the scenarios in which AI could
be a risk, experts point to the two most likely scenarios:
When artificial intelligence AI is programmed to do lethal tasks: For
example, autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are
programmed to kill, so misuse of these weapons can easily cause massive
casualties. Moreover, if an AI arms race accidentally leads to an AI war, these
weapons may be designed to be extremely difficult to interrupt to avoid enemy
interference, leaving humans out of control of the situation. This risk exists
even in limited AI contexts, but increases with the growing level of AI's
intelligence and autonomy.
artificial intelligence AI is programmed to do beneficial tasks but uses
destructive methods to achieve its goals: This can happen when the AI's goals
are not perfectly aligned with our goals. For example, if we ask a self-driving
car to get us to the airport as quickly as possible, take our request
literally, and we may end up being chased by a helicopter and suffering from
motion sickness. As another example, if superintelligent AI is put into a
geoengineering project, side effects that destroy the ecosystem may occur, and
human efforts to prevent the side effects may be perceived as a threat to the
achievement of the goal.
As the example above shows, the concern with superintelligent AI is its
ability, not its malice. Superintelligent AI artificial intelligence is very
good at accomplishing goals, so if those goals don't align with ours, big
problems can arise. You're probably not an ant hater who tramples evil ants,
but if you're working on a green hydro project, you probably don't care about
the presence of an anthill in your area. The main goal of safety research in
artificial intelligence is not to allow humans to become like ants that will be
washed away by a flood.
REASONS FOR RECENT INTEREST IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI SAFETY
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Bill Gates, and many
celebrities and AI researchers in science and technology have expressed their
concerns about the dangers of AI in the press and in open letters. Why did this
topic suddenly become a hot topic?
The success of the development of comprehensive artificial intelligence
has long been thought of as science fiction, or a very distant future. However,
thanks to the rapid development of technology, advances in artificial
intelligence that would have taken decades just five years ago have already
occurred today, and many experts are considering the potential of artificial
intelligence. Some experts still believe that human-level artificial
intelligence AI is centuries away, but at a conference in Puerto Rico in 2015,
the majority of researchers speculated that it would happen before 2060.
Therefore, the necessary safety studies can take decades to complete, so you
should start doing them now.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to be smarter than any other
human, so there is no definitive way to predict how an artificial intelligence AI
will behave with human intelligence. We can't even build on the skills of the
past to deal with it because we've never, knowingly or unintentionally, created
anything with the ability to outperform us. The best example we can understand
might be our own evolution. Humans rule the planet not because they are the
biggest, strongest or fastest, but because they are the smartest, so can we be
sure that we can continue to rule the planet when we are no longer the smartest
race?
FLI's position is that as long as we win the race between the
ever-growing technology and our wisdom to control it, our civilization will
thrive. The best way to win in artificial intelligence AI technology is by
supporting AI safety research, not by hindering the advancement of technology,
but by increasing our wisdom.
MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT SUPERINTELLIGENT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI
There is a lot of talk going on about the future of artificial
intelligence and what it will or should mean for humanity. World experts are
skeptical about the impact of artificial intelligence AI on the job market,
whether and when the development of human-level AI will succeed, whether it
will lead to an explosion of intelligence, and whether we should welcome artificial intelligence AI development as
either a welcome or a fear. Arguing. However, tedious and meaningless debates are
also common due to misunderstandings and answers from fellow students. To focus
on more informative and interesting questions, we've put together some of the
most common misconceptions.
MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT TIME ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
How long will it take for machines to surpass human intelligence? We
commonly misunderstand that we know the answer for sure.
One of the common misconceptions is the conviction that we will have
superhuman artificial intelligence in this century. In fact, history is full of
hype and goals about technology. Where are the fusion power plants and flying
cars promised to be invented by now? Artificial intelligence has also been
continuously exaggerated since ancient times. For example, the creators of
artificial intelligence, John McCarty (who coined the word “artificial
intelligence”), Marvin Minsky, Nathaniel Rochester and Cloud Shannon made
overly optimistic predictions with outdated computers that only humans can
solve, and improve themselves. will try to We believe that significant progress
can be made on some of these issues if carefully selected scientists work
together over the summer.”
On the other hand, a common misconception to the contrary is the
conviction that we will never get superhuman artificial intelligence AI.
Researchers have given us many estimates of how long the development of
superhuman AI will take, but given the accuracy of many historically skeptical
predictions, we can't say with certainty that the odds of developing superhuman
AI this century are zero. For example, the great nuclear physicist Ernest
Rutherford said that nuclear power was bullshit just 24 hours before Leo
Schillard developed the nuclear chain reaction, and astronomer Royal Richard
Woolley said in 1956 that interstellar travel was futile. . The most extreme
form of this misconception is that superhuman artificial intelligence AI is
materially impossible. But physicists know that the brain is made up of quarks
and electrons and is designed to act like a powerful computer, and therefore also
know that there are no laws of physics that prevent us from building ever more
intelligent quark structures.
When we ran a survey to artificial intelligence AI researchers, 'How many years from now will
artificial intelligence at the human level be developed with at least 50%
probability?' I don't know'. For example, in a survey of AI researchers, the
average answer was 2045, while some researchers predicted hundreds of years or
more.
Another misconception related to this is to think that the development
of superhuman AI is only a few years away. In fact, those concerned about
superhuman artificial intelligence AI speculate that it is at least a decade
away. But unless you're 100% sure it won't happen this century, they argue,
it's wise to start your safety studies now to prepare for contingencies. The
safety issues associated with human-level artificial intelligence are very
demanding and difficult, and can take decades to solve. Therefore, it is wiser
to start research now rather than a day before the risk arises.
CONTROVERSIAL MISCONCEPTIONS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Another common misconception is to believe that all those who express
concerns about AI, and supporters of safety research, are Luddites who don't
know much about AI. This claim was made public in Puerto Rico by Stuart
Russell, author of the AI textbook, to great laughter from the audience.
Related to this, some people mistakenly believe that supporting AI safety
studies is controversial. However, like buying fire insurance because you
cannot ignore the possibility that your house may catch on fire, in fact, to
support AI safety research, you need to understand that the risk is not
negligible, rather than a certainty that the risk is high.
It may seem by the media that the debate about the reliability of AI is
more controversial than it really is. Our fears are often used in marketing,
and it is true that out-of-context implicit citations get more clicks than
factual citations. That is why, if the two sides only communicate through the
media, you can think of them as more conflicting than they really are. For
example, if someone who is skeptical about technological development reads Bill
Gates' position only through British newspapers, he may mistakenly believe that
Gates believes that the development of superintelligence is imminent.
Similarly, if an advocate of the benefits of AI read only his quotes about
Martian overpopulation with no knowledge of Andrew Ng's position, he could
mistakenly assume that Andrew Ng doesn't care about AI safety. Because Andrew
Ng sees the development of artificial intelligence for a long time, he focuses
on short-term issues rather than long-term ones.
MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT THE DANGERS OF SUPERHUMAN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI
Articles with similar titles are innumerable. In general, articles like
this, with badly portrayed robot illustrations, etc., encourage us to worry
about self-conscious evil robots revolting and killing us. If you take this on
a positive note, these articles are actually impressive in that they concisely
outline scenarios that AI researchers don't care about. This scenario combines
three different misconceptions of consciousness: anxiety, evil, and robots.
When we drive on the road, we have a subjective experience of colors and
sounds. Could being an autonomous car evoke any feelings? Of course, questions
about this ritual are interesting in their own right, but they have nothing to
do with the dangers of AI. This is because it is only the actions of superhuman
AI that affect humans, not the subjective emotions that AI feels.
The fear of machines becoming vicious is another factor that confuses
us. What we really need to worry about is AI's ability, not its malice.
Superhuman AI is very good at accomplishing whatever the goal is, so that goal
must be the same as ours. We don't usually hate ants, but they're smarter than
them, so if we want to build a hydroelectric dam over their nest, they can't
help it. The reason for the effort to achieve beneficial artificial
intelligence is to avoid the plight of ants that will be washed away by the
flood.
The misconception about self-consciousness is linked to the
misconception that machines cannot have goals. But, like a heat-seeking missile
hitting a target, a machine can have a target in the sense that it clearly
exhibits target-directed behavior. Therefore, if a machine with a misaligned
target is a threat, the source of the threat is the misaligned target itself,
not whether the machine is self-conscious. If heat-seeking missiles are chasing
after them, we're probably not so confident that we don't have to worry because
the machine can't have a target.
Because some reporters are obsessed with robots, filling their articles
with evil metal monsters, they often portray Rodney Brooks and other robotics
pioneers as demons. In fact, the main concern is not the robots, but the intelligence
itself, or more specifically, intelligence that strays from our goals. It takes
only an internet connection, not a robot body, for this elusive superhuman
intelligence to leapfrog financial markets, outstrip human researchers,
outperform human leaders, and create weapons we don't even understand. So even
if it was physically impossible to build a robot, an AI with great intelligence
and wealth could easily manipulate humans or pay them to subconsciously obey
orders.
Myths about robots have to do with the illusion that machines cannot
control humans. But intelligence makes control possible. We can control tigers,
not because we are stronger, but because we are more intelligent. So, if we
give up our intellectual position at the top of the planet, we may have to give
up our ability to control as well.
INTERESTING DEBATES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Only by not wasting time on the misunderstandings mentioned above can
you focus on interesting and truthful arguments. What kind of future do you
want? Should we develop lethal autonomous weapons? What do you think about job
automation by machines? What kind of career advice would you give to today's
children? Do you want new jobs to replace old ones, or do you want a jobless
society where everyone can live a prosperous life? Do you want to further
develop superintelligence and spread it throughout the universe? Will we
control those intelligent machines or will they control us? Will intelligent
machines replace us, coexist with us, or integrate with us? What does it mean
to exist as a human in the age of artificial intelligence? What do you want it
to mean? And how can we make the future that way? If you have any doubts about
these questions, join this conversation now!
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